1, The mysterious carton packaging market, is happy or sad?

It is estimated that China's express delivery volume will exceed 5.6 billion pieces in September. You heard me right, 5.6 billion a month!! It could go around the earth several times. However, this figure is not groundless, a slap on the forehead came out. According to the latest data from the state post bureau, China's express delivery development index reached 212.6 in August, up 22.3 percent year on year, among which the development scale index, service quality index and development capacity index also increased by 27.3 percent, 22.2 percent and 19.6 percent, respectively, compared with the same period last year.

At the 3rd China (hangzhou) international express industry conference held in tonglu county, zhejiang province, ma junsheng, director of the state post bureau, said that the number of express deliveries in China will exceed 60 billion in 2019. Increment leads the world.

The rapid increase in the volume of express delivery has also brought great consumption of paper boxes, plastic bags, tapes, white foam and other packaging materials. Carton recycling, waybill "slimming", big data algorithm optimization box, green material research and development... Some express delivery companies have accelerated their "green transformation".

Jiao zheng, deputy secretary of the China association of express delivery, said the "return package plan" has promoted the reduction of express packaging, green. According to statistics, the green recycling boxes of cainiao network and express delivery companies are expected to recycle hundreds of millions of express delivery boxes every year, reducing the carbon emissions equivalent to planting 740,000 saosmodene trees.

Although the cartons used for express packaging involve raw paper and cardboard, the future of the carton packaging industry seems to be unpredictable, driven by the "green packaging" plan. Recently, people who are concerned about the paper packaging industry know that the price of paper has been going up crazy, like dominoes, a few leading paper companies take the lead in price increases, the price of the letter like snowflakes in the market, the original paper up cardboard up! Faced with this market situation, the carton factory owners are excited to rub their hands, looking forward to the mysterious "gold nine silver ten" arrival? Or worried?

2. Will the "tentative" price increase usher in a period of high profits?

Indeed, as we all know, the second half of the year is the traditional peak season of papermaking, whether as a cultural paper or cardboard corrugated, the demand will more or less usher in a certain rebound, but in recent years the wind has changed a bit. In particular, the continuous expansion of paper production capacity since 2018 has changed the trend of supply-side contraction since the supply-side reform, which has greatly restricted the improvement of supply and demand pattern.

After two years of high profits for paper mills, investment in fixed assets has increased significantly since 2018. According to incomplete statistics, the new capacity will exceed 9.5 million tons in 2019, among which 8 million tons of corrugated cardboard new capacity, the most significant increase.

To be sure, not all cases of increased capacity are exciting. For example, when market demand is weak, the increase of capacity will directly lead to the situation of oversupply, which will inevitably limit the rise of paper prices.

Paper industry is very cyclical, "gold three silver four", "gold nine silver ten", soon to National Day and double 11, coupled with some regions in September and October suffered production suspension, downstream enterprises may welcome a round of replenishment cycle, for the whole industry is positive.

The paper price also rises naturally with the market performance, but compared with previous years, this year's increase in the range is not big, although the letter of increase is a lot, but the rise in the basic range of 30 yuan to 50 yuan/ton, in accordance with the market in previous years, the single price rise of paper enterprises usually around 200 yuan/ton.

Therefore, paper companies are also in a tentative price increase, the future trend of the market is also very uncertain. Then how the downstream demand performance, how paper companies inventory, may be related to the next move in paper prices.